About CrashLab
Everyone has an opinion about AI and jobs. But has anyone actually thought through the economics? CrashLab is a project of New Consensus exploring the dynamics of AI displacement through interactive models, analysis, and an open-source economic simulator.
Why CrashLab exists
Most people haven't thought through the economics of AI displacement.
Tech leaders say "we'll figure it out." Politicians propose UBI. Economists wave their hands about "creative destruction." But almost nobody has actually modeled what happens when a large share of workers are permanently displaced.
When you think through the dynamics, three things become clear:
- The demand spiral is real and hard to stop. When workers lose income, they stop spending. When spending drops, businesses lose revenue and cut more workers. This feedback loop is devastating — and "the market will adapt" is hard to believe once you've watched it unfold.
- UBI runs into problems most people haven't considered. Where does the money come from when AI drives production costs (and therefore profits and tax revenue) toward zero? When UBI recipients spend their checks at private companies, who ends up with the money? Our Replicator model lets you trace these flows yourself.
- Ownership structure is the variable that changes everything. When AI productivity gains flow to the public rather than to private shareholders, the dynamics shift fundamentally. Our Three Futures analysis shows why.
Those are our findings. But CrashLab isn't a black box that only outputs our conclusions. We're building an open simulator — anyone will be able to run their own scenarios, adjust the parameters, and see what the model produces. If you think UBI can work, test it. If you think business-as-usual is enough, run that scenario.
Part of the New Consensus family
Get involved
Our BigSim economy simulator project is open source and we welcome contributions from economists, developers, and anyone interested in understanding our economic future.
Explore the Data Model
Browse the parameters, assumptions, and calibration data behind BigSim. Suggest changes and improvements.
Open BigSimJoin Our Discord Community
Discuss economic modeling, AI impact, and policy design with us.Join Discord →